There is a fascinating set of demographics that explains both Roy Moore’s defeat in the recent Alabama U.S. Senate race and Donald J. Trump’s victory in last year’s presidential election. America has a new progressive or leftwing majority that made both developments possible, and perhaps inevitable.
The New American Majority is composed of progressive whites, women, and left-leaning people of color. This development was best described by political operative and Nation writer Steve Phillips in his excellent book Brown Is the New White: How the Demographic Revolution Has Created a New American Majority.
The New American Majority
Phillips made three basic arguments in that book; published in February 2016, that have been verified by the events since then. The arguments are:
- Nonwhites and left-leaning whites now make up a majority of the U.S. electorate.
- It was this new majority that enabled Barrack Obama (D-Illinois) to win two presidential elections.
- The leadership of the Democratic Party does not understand this new reality and fails to capitalize on it. This leads to Democratic defeat because the party wastes its resources trying to get white votes.
Ironically enough I was reading Phillips’ book during the Alabama election, so I quickly realized that it explained what was happening Down South. It also provides a more plausible explanation for Moore’s loss than the official media spiel of Roy Moore’s alleged misconduct.
How the New American Majority Explains Roy Moore’s Defeat
It was the New Majority of nonwhites, leftwing whites, and women (whom Phillips does not list separately) that helped Democrat Doug Jones win a narrow victory.
Here’s how Phillips broke down his New American majority:
- Progressive People of Color: 23%.
- Progressive whites: 28%.
This gives Democrats that play their cards right a big advantage because 55% of the population are “Progressives” (Phillips’ euphemism for leftists).
Now take a look at CBS News Polling about the December 12 Alabama U.S. Senate Race. Here is how CBS broke down Doug Jones’ voters:
- Women – 57%.
- Black voters – 96%.
- Young voters – 60%.
Unfortunately, CBS’s data did not include white or Hispanic voters but the message is pretty clear. Some of CBS’s data also backs Phillips’ argument that African American turnout is vital to Democratic victory, around 30% of Alabama voters were black on December 12, a higher percentage than came out in 2012.
The CBS data also indicates that Republican have a huge problem that goes far beyond Roy Moore. The problem is best demonstrated by these statistics about Moore voters:
- Women – 41%.
- Black voters – 4%.
- Young voters – 38%.
All this calls the Big Media’s hypothesis that Moore lost because of allegations of sex with under-aged girls into doubt. There is a strong possibility that Moore lost because a majority of Alabama’s voters disagree with his politics.
Does Moore’s Loss indicate More Republican Defeats are Imminent
The picture is clear almost no blacks, and large majorities of women and young people and young people voted Democratic. This occurred in Alabama, the center of the Bible Belt and one of the reddest, most conservative states in the union.
If that can occur in Alabama what about neighboring Tennessee; where the U.S. Senate seat will be open next year? There is also Texas, where U.S. Senator Ted Cruz (R) faces low approval ratings, a potential primary challenge, and reelection next year. Texas and Tennessee are a lot like Alabama; increasingly diverse former Confederate states with substantial black and Hispanic populations, and growing urban areas.
It looks as if Phillips; predictions are starting to become reality before our eyes. Interestingly enough, some Republicans seem to agree with him; U.S. Senators Bob Corker (Tennessee) and Jeff Flake (Arizona) will not seek re-election next year. Both men gave Trump as a pretext for not running, but the real reason might be fear of defeat.
There is also speculation that U.S. Speaker of the House Paul D. Ryan (R-Wisconsin) is planning to leave Congress. Ryan might agree with Phillips, and he does not want to share the fate of his colleague U.S. Rep.; and former Speaker, Nancy Pelosi (D-California), and spend years as a minority leader getting blamed for the party’s failures.
The New American Majority Explains Trump’s Victory
The New American Majority may also explain why Trump is in the White House. Last year Democratic standard-bearer Hillary R. Clinton (D-New York) ran a campaign right out of 1996.
Hillary pandered to “swing voters;” chose a white man (U.S. Senator Tim Kaine D-Virginia) as her running mate, and spent her money on TV ads aimed at white soccer moms. Then she lost by narrow margins in states like Wisconsin, Michigan, and Ohio, which Obama carried in 2012.
“African American and younger voters weren’t as enthusiastic for Clinton as they were for Obama,” Ohio State University political scientist Paul Beck said in an election post-mortem for Cleveland.com.
Hillary may have lost because young people, African Americans, and leftists stayed home; or voted for Trump, not because of Russian influence or revolt by working-class whites. A possibility that the media; and Democratic leaders, do want to acknowledge is that Hillary lost because she was not leftwing enough for the New American Majority.
At least one political scientist; Professor Brian F. Schaffner of the University Massachusetts-Amherst, believes U.S. Senator Bernie Sanders’ (I-Vermont) supporters made the difference for Trump in some swing states, including Michigan, National Public Radio reported. Polls indicate that the social democrat Bernie is the most popular politician in America with an approval rating of around 54%.
For all her flaws, Hillary still managed to beat Trump in the popular vote. Clinton received 65.845 million votes or around 2.9 more than the Donald, CNN reported. That too is evidence of a New American Majority the elite does not want to acknowledge.
The Future of the New American Majority
The existence of the New American majority means we will see more political upsets like the one in Alabama. Likely outcomes will be close elections, or Democrats winning office in the Red States like Alabama.
The New American Majority does not guarantee Democratic success, because Democrats may lack the insight and sophistication to take advantage of it. A major shortcoming that Democrats face is lack of a professional party organization like the one Republicans have. One reason why the GOP won big in 2016 was that professional Republican Party operatives; led by former Chairman Reince Priebus, stepped in and took over the campaign.
The lack of professional infrastructure leaves the party under the control of professional lobbyists and consultants that fail; or refuse, to understand the new reality, Phillips complained. Such consultants are more interested in charging the party high fees for advertising and studies than winning elections.
Another development might be the reemergence of progressive Republicans. Some Republicans will start tilting left because that is where the voters are. There is a strong leftist tradition in the GOP; Theodore Roosevelt, Dwight D. Eisenhower, Trump’s hero Richard M. Nixon, Wendell Willkie, and Nelson Rockefeller were all left of center.
Trump himself can be seen as to the left of the party; in the past, Donald has promoted single-payer healthcare and gun control. A strong possibility is that Trump will start moving to the left to win votes. This is likely to occur if Donald plans to run for reelection in 2020.
There are a few progressive Republicans around right now, one of them Pastor Robb Ryerse is running against “big money in politics” in Arkansas’s 3rd District Congressional race. Ironically enough, Ryerse has been endorsed by U.S. Senator Bernie Sanders’ (I-Vermont) organization Brand New Congress.
It looks as if American politics is about to get far more interesting because of the New Majority. Only history will tell if the New American Majority leads to a new Republican or a new Democratic majority in Congress.