Does this Poll Show who will win the Democratic Presidential Primary?

Strangely, a new poll could predict the Democratic Presidential Primary winner by asking likely voters one simple question.

That question is; “which Democratic presidential candidate do you like.” To clarify, the 19 August 2019 Economist/YouGov Poll measures the “net favorability rating among Democrats” of the candidates. In other words, YouGov asked; “Democrats how do you like the candidates?”

Notably, I estimate 56% of Democrats like U.S. Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-Massachusetts), YouGov estimates. Thus, Democrats like Warren better than media favorite former Vice President Joe Biden (D-Delaware). To clarify, only 36% of Democrats say they like Biden. 

I calculated my likability ratings for the candidates by subtracting YouGov’s favorability ratings from 100%.

Democrats Dislike their Candidates

Warren has the highest favorability rating of all the Democratic primary candidates at 44%.

Meanwhile, Biden is second with 34%. U.S. Senator Kamala Harris (D-California) is third with 31%. Interestingly, U.S. Senator Bernie Sanders (I-Vermont) and South Bend Indiana Mayor Buttigieg are in a tie for fourth place with 30%. 

Thus, 70% of Democratic voters have an unfavorable opinion both Sanders and Buttigieg. However, 66% of Democrats have an unfavorable opinion of Biden, and 69% of Democrats have a poor opinion of Harris.

On the other hand, YouGov estimates a majority of Democrats, 56% still has an unfavorable opinion of Warren but her favorable rating is still 10 points ahead of her closet rival.

 Consequently, I think Warren has the advantage because more voters like her. Moreover, Warren’s numbers resemble those of a very successful candidate in another political party President Donald J. Trump (R-New York).

How Trump’s Ascension could Predict Liz Warren’s Democratic Primary Victory

To explain, back in 2016 Trump was the most popular Republican candidate, but the media branded the Donald “un-electable.” Yet Trump won both the nomination and the election.

Currently, 65% of voters think Biden is more “electable” than Warren, YouGov estimates. However, 59% of Democrats think Warren is electable.

Interestingly, Warren’s favoritbility rating is reminiscent of Trump’s. To elaborate RealClear Politics’ Average of Polls gave Trump a 41.8% favorability rating on 23 August 2019. Moreover, the Economist/YouGov poll gave Trump a favorability rating of 44%, identical to the rating Democrats give Warren.

My analysis flies against conventional media thinking. In particular, I violate the taboo against comparing Democratic behavior to Republican behavior. However, in 2016 the contrarians who predicated a Trump victory were right.

Let’s stop Pretending Joe Biden is a Viable Presidential Candidate

Interestingly, there was a similar media push to crown a well-known establishment figure; former Florida governor Jeb Bush, the Republican front runner in 2016. Tellingly, Jeb’s campaign went nowhere and he dropped out in February after burning through $130 million in donations.

Furthermore, Trump could share my views because has been focusing his wrath on Warren for a long time. In fact, the Donald began attacking Warren in November 2017.

Thus, I think Trump does not consider Joe Biden a viable presidential candidate. Perhaps the media needs to look at the President’s reasoning. For all his faults, Trump seems to have a better grasp of what voters like than the pundit class.