Electoral College Math Shows Trump has no Chance

The raw numbers of the presidential election doom Donald Trump to defeat. A quick glance at the poll data compiled by Real Clear Politics on October 28, about a week and half before the election show Trump has little chance.

The Donald might be popular in some quarters but the majority of the American people are against him and his Republican Party.

Some of the most revealing numbers include:

  • Number of solid Trump States (that is states Donald has locked up): nine.

 

  • Number of Solid Clinton States: seven.

 

  • Number of Electoral College votes in Solid Clinton States: 115.

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  • Number of Electoral College votes in Solid Trump states: 49.

 

  • One Solid Clinton state (California) has more votes than every solid Trump state: 55.

 

  • Number of Electoral College votes needed to win: 270.

 

  • Number of Electoral College votes; in Solid Clinton, Likely Clinton and Leaning Clinton states: 252.

 

  • Number of Electoral College votes in Solid Trump, Likely Trump and Leaning Trump States: 126.

 

  • Number of Electoral College votes in Toss Up states: 160.

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  • Number of Electoral College votes in Likely Clinton states: 54.

 

  • Number of Electoral College votes in Likely Trump states: 36.

 

  • Number of Electoral College votes in Leans Clinton states: 83.

 

  • Number of Electoral College votes in Leans Trump states: 41.

 

If these numbers are accurate Hillary is just 28 Electoral College votes away from victory. Trump is 110 votes away. He would need to carry every Toss Up state to win, Clinton only needs to carry one large Toss Up state; such as Texas with 38 votes or Florida with 29 votes to win.

In America, Presidents are not elected directly by voters. Instead the Electoral College a body of electors that is chosen in population based elections conducts the actual vote. The College’s vote is intended to represent the voters.

Hillary has an advantage because her party the Democrats represents more populous states and urban areas. Trump’s Republican Party has more supporters in sparsely populated rural areas.