Yes, 2022 is here and most people expect the year will be terrible. Unfortunately, I think these suspicions are accurate because of economic trends.
My big predictions for 2022 involve inflation, crypto, Joe Biden, Trump, civil strife in the United States, the Metaverse, and Chinese stocks. Please don’t believe any of these predictions. They’re simply my guesses and gut feelings.
Here are my predictions for 2022:
Inflation will be the Big Economic Story for 2022
I expect inflation to stick with us for the year and to rise because Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell refuses to raise interest rates.
Inflation is rising because of out-of-control speculation, shortages of many goods including housing, supply chain shortages, and low interest rates. Low interest rates drive inflation by making lending cheap, which makes it easy for rich people to buy and speculate.
Powell refuses to raise interest rates to please politicians. Which is why President Donald J. Trump (R-Florida) appointed him and President Joe Biden (D-Delaware) reappointed him.
Inflation will hit develop nations hardest, but it’ll wreak havoc in the United States and China too. My prediction 8% to 14% inflation in the US in 2022. I also predict inflation will force Powell to raise interest rates.
Notably, the US inflation rate rose to 7% in December 2021, Trading Economics estimates. Frighteningly, America began 2021 with an inflation rate of 1.4% in January. Hence, US inflation rose by 5.6% in 2021.
Inflation will be the big story and drive the narrative because most Americans have no experience of it. In particular, expect to see massive amounts of money pouring into supposedly safe investment such as gold and cryptocurrency.
Bitcoin will rise to $60,000 or $70,000 in 2022
I do not expect $100,000 Bitcoin (BTC) in 2022. However, I expect Bitcoin prices to rise to $55,000-$70,000 because of inflation.
In comparison, CoinMarketCap gave Bitcoin (BTC) a Coin Price of $43,301.83 on 14 January 2022. Ethereuem (ETH) had a Coin Price of $3,315.30 on the same day.
Bitcoin will not rise to $100,000 because of the efforts to control it in China. However, inflation will ravage many other countries. Hence, there will be a massive demand for it.
Bitcoin’s price will rise because it is the cheapest and easiest hedging mechanism for ordinary people to access. In related stories expect Ethereum (ETH) at $5,000, Solana (SOL) at $200, and Binance Coin (BNB) at $600 or $700 at the end of 2022. Mr. Market paid $490.42 for Binance (BNB) and $147.29 for Solana (SOL) on 14 January 2022.
Also expect nonfungible tokens (NFTs) to collapse in 2022. I think this market is a bubble and will collapse. However, a few NFTs will retain value. In particular, some of the NFT art could gain enormous value at some point.
I expect decentralized autonomous organizations (DAOs) to be the next big thing in blockchain. I predict DAOs will replace NFTs as the next token bubble.
Biden’s Poll Numbers will keep falling
I predict President Joseph R. Biden Jr’s (D-Delaware) poll numbers will fall all year. I think Biden’s poll numbers will fall because the president promised voters the impossible.
The impossible is returning America to normalcy. Normalcy is code for returning America to some past golden age such as the 1990s. That is impossible, and when it does not happen voters will turn on Biden. Just as they turned on Donald J. Trump (R-Florida) for not returning America to the 1950s.
For example, YouGov estimated 50% of Americans disapproved of Biden between 2 and 4 January 2022. Similarly, Morning Consult estimates 50% of Americans disapproved of Biden on 5 January 2022.
Another reason Biden’s popularity is dropping is that the president is on TV each day. Hence, Americans can how see pathetic Biden is. For example, Biden was unfamiliar with the popular phrase “Let’s Go Brandon.”
Trump will do well at the polls if he stays out of the public eye
I predict ex-President Trump will do well in the polls as long as he stays out of the public eye.
To explain, many Americans love the idea of Trump but hate the reality. Republicans, particular, love Trump the legend, but they hate Trump the man. Additionally, some Americans dislike Biden so much they will consider any alternative, even Trump.
Consequently, I think Trump can poll well if he stays out of the public eye. As long as there are no speeches about stolen elections and no Tweets Americans like Trump. My prediction, Republicans will go do well if Trump stays on the golf course. If the Donald leaves the Golf Course and hits the campaign trail, Republicans will lose.
America will experience Civil Unrest in 2022
I think America will experience civil unrest in 2022 because of widespread poverty, misery, inequality, and distrust in government.
Around 34% of American adults say violence against the government can be justified, a 1 January 2022 Washington Post and University of Maryland poll estimates. Similarly, around 40% of Republicans and 41% of independents say antigovernmental violence is sometimes justified.
Thus, Americans are thinking about anti-government violence. I predict we will see civil strife in the United States in 2022. My guess is that civil strife will comprise riots or terrorism. For example, mob violence similar to the chaos we saw in Summer 2020 or on 6 January 2021.
One example of such violence could be the spread of skirmishes between right and left-wing extremists from the West Coast to the entire nation. Another example of such violence could be terrorist attacks on government officials or institutions. For instance, assassination attempts on members of Congress, Biden, or Trump.
The Metaverse will be a Bust in 2022
I predict the Metaverse will enjoy incredible popularity in early 2022 because of Mark Zuckerberg’s support. However, that popularity will plummet when people see what the Metaverse is.
People will go to the Metaverse expecting Ready Player One, but find a collection of blockchain gambling schemes. For example, Meta Football (MFT).
My prediction is that investors and speculators will dump the Metaverse fast when they see what it is. Moreover, I expect Meta (FB), the company formerly known as Facebook, will see its stock value fall as investors turn on the Metaverse.
Hence, the only people who benefit from the Metaverse will be speculators trying to short Meta stock. Expect Mark Zuckerberg to feel enormous heat for that.
I expect the name Metaverse will become so disreputable, many Metaverse companies and platforms will rebrand without the offensive term Meta.
Chinese stocks will rebound in 2022
Chinese stocks had a horrible 2021 because of President Xi Jinping’s crackdown on tech. For example, Alibaba (NYSE: BABA) shares fell from $227.37 on 11 January 2021 to $131.57 on 14 January 2022.
My prediction is that good Chinese stocks will rebound as investors realize Xi is only cracking down on certain companies. In addition, the money Chinese companies are making will speak louder than anti-Chinese hysteria. So expect Chinese stocks to rebound in 2022. For example, Alibaba (BABA) could rise to $200 or more in 2022.
One driver of Chinese stocks’ success will be TikTok. For example, TikTok replaced the American Google as the world’s most popular website in late 2021, Cloudfare estimates. Conversely, TikTok was the world’s seventh most popular website in late 2020, behind six American websites, Google, Facebook, Microsoft, Apple, Netflix, and Amazon.
China is winning the internet wars, something I predict investors will notice. The investors will follow the clicks because clicks are money in today’s world.
These are my predictions for 2022. Please accept them as food for thought rather than advice.