Market Mad House

In individuals, insanity is rare; but in groups, parties, nations and epochs, it is the rule. Friedrich Nietzsche

The Junk Pile

Is DraftKings Making Money?

Interest in DraftKings (DKNG) is growing because 18 American states and the District of Columbia have legalized sports betting.

Consequently, DraftKings Inc. (NASDAQ: DKNG) shares rose from $10.68 on 2 January 2020 to $49.44 on 15 September 2020 and $53.11 on 17 September 2020. Mr. Market is betting that America will embrace legalized sports betting.

However, Axios reports that the nation’s three most populous states resist betting. Notably, sports betting legalized failed in two of the nation’s three most populous states: California and Florida. California, the nation’s largest state, had 39.51 million residents in 2019.

 In addition, Florida, the nation’s third largest state; had 21.478 million residents in 2019. One of those states; Texas was America’s second most populous state, with 28.996 million residents in 2019.Thus, I calculate states three with 89.984 million residents resist sports-betting legislation.

What States are Legalizing Sports betting?

Yet many states could soon legalize sports books. Specifically, legislatures in four states (North Carolina, Tennessee, Virginia, and Washington State) have passed bills legalizing sports betting, Axios claims. In addition, there is active sports-betting legalization in nine more states (Hawaii, Kansas, Louisiana, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nebraska, Ohio, South Dakota, and Vermont).

The 18 states with legalized sports betting are:  Arkansas, Colorado, Delaware, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Mississippi, Montana, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, New Mexico, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, and West Virginia. However, efforts to legalize sports betting failed in 12 states: Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, California, Connecticut, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Maine, Minnesota, Missouri, Wyoming.

Finally, Axios claims there has been sports betting legislation in seven states; Idaho, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Texas, Utah, and Wisconsin. One of those states; Texas was America’s second most populous state, with 28.996 million residents in 2019.Thus, I calculate states with 89.984 million residents resist sports-betting legislation.

How Many Americans will bet On Sports

However, interest in sports betting in America is high. For instance, the National Football League (NFL) estimates 38.1 million (15%) of American adults said they would bet on NFL games in September 2019.

 Interestingly, 24% of Americans say they could bet on the NFL if betting was legal and convenient. Furthermore, 39% of self-proclaimed “avid NFL fans” said they planned to bet on the 2019-2020 NFL season.

Meanwhile, the number of Americans betting at casino sports books grew from 5.7 million in 2018 to 6.9 million, the NFL estimates. Finally, the American Gaming Association claims the name could make $2.3 billion a year from widespread legal sports betting.

The NFL needs Legalized Sports Betting

The NFL has a strong incentive to embrace sports-betting because Morning Consult estimates 75% of people are more likely to watch games they bet on. Hence, I think sports-betting could help the NFL’s declining ratings.

For instance, ratings for the NFL Sunday Night Football Season Debut fell by 23% between 2019 and 2020, Deadline reports. In detail, 22.2 million people watched the 2019 Sunday Night Football season opener, but only 14.81 million tuned in a year later.

Hence, the NFL needs to take action to reverse its ratings decline or face a future without advertisers or TV contracts. However, the NFL was competing with the coronavirus-delayed NBA and NHL playoffs on 10 September 2020.

Can Sportsbooks save Sports?

Therefore, America’s sports leagues have a powerful incentive to endorse and promote legalized gambling. Moreover, teams and leagues can partner with sports books and betters.

For instance, Australian sports book PointsBet will sponsor sports at the University of Colorado at Boulder (CU), a press release reveals. In detail, agency Learfield IMG College; which manages CU Athletics’ media rights, signed a five-year sponsorship deal with PointsBet, on CU’s behalf.

Similar deals could replace lost TV revenue for professional teams. Moreover, exclusive deals with leagues and teams could be a profit center for sports betting companies; such as DraftKings (DKNG) and its competitors.

Can Sportsbooks make Money?

Bettors wagered over $11 billion at America’s legal sports books in 2019, Legal Sports Betting claims. In addition, legal American sports books generated $750 million in revenue in 2019.

Moreover, collective monthly sports betting surpassed $1 billion a month for the first time and nearly hit $2 billion in 2019, Legal Sports Betting estimates. Finally, Legal Sports Betting estimates legal sports wagers in the US could exceed $20 billion for the first time in 2020.

Thus there is an enormous market for legalized sports betting in the United States. DraftKings (NASDAQ: DKNG) is well-positioned to tap that market with its fantasy sports experience. But is DraftKings making money?

Does DraftKings Make Money?

Presently, DraftKings (DKNG) loses money. For example, DraftKings reported a quarterly operating loss of -$160.44 million on 30 June 2020. That operating loss grew from -$72,000 on 31 March 2020 and -$25,000 on 30 September 2019.

Incredibly, DraftKings’ operating loss exceeded the quarterly revenues of $70.93 million reported on 30 June 2020. However, DraftKings reported a quarterly gross profit of $23.6 million on the same day.

Moreover, DraftKings’ business; sports betting and fantasy sports, is so new, Stockrow offers no revenue growth estimate for it. Additionally, DraftKings reported a quarterly net loss of -$230.60 million on 30 June 2020.

How Much Cash Does DraftKings have?

In addition, DraftKings reported a negative operating cash flow of -$134.23 million on 30 September 2020. DraftKings could have borrowed $1.501 billion.

To elaborate, DraftKings reported a quarterly financing cash flow of $1.501 billion on 30 September. The Financing Cash Flow shows how much money a company generates from financing.

Draftkings reported an ending cash flow of $1.244 billion on 30 September. In addition, Draftkings has $1.376 billion in cash and short-term investments on 30 June 2020. Thus Draftkings has the money to take advantage of new legalized betting markets. Finally, DraftKings reported total assets of $2.516 billion on 30 June 2020.

I conclude Mr. Market overvalued DraftKings (DKNG) at $48.21 on 15 September 2020 because the company makes no money. Currently, I think DraftKings is just a business plan to take advantage of new legalized sports-betting markets.

Therefore, I advise investors to stay away from Draftkings until widespread legalized sports-betting begins all over the United States. Until then, Draftkings is only a business plan.