Market Mad House

In individuals, insanity is rare; but in groups, parties, nations and epochs, it is the rule. Friedrich Nietzsche


Is Kamala Harris the Democratic Front Runner?

We have to ask is Kamala Harris the Democratic Front Runner, now she has made her presidential run official.

Importantly, U.S. Senator Harris (California) is the Democratic Front Runner among the candidates actually in the race. To explain, Oddshark ranks her odds of winning the election at 700 to one, tied with former U.S. Representative Beto O’Rourke (D-Texas). However, O’Rourke has not announced a presidential bid.

On the other hand, Harris beats the two serious candidates actually in the race for the Democratic presidential nomination. To explain, Oddsshark gives U.S. Senator Liz Warren (D-California) odds of 1600 to one and U.S. Senator Kirsten Gillibrand (D-New York) odds of 3,000 to one.

Interestingly, Oddshark still gives President Donald J. Trump (R-New York) the best odds to win the 2020 Presidential Election. Specifically, Oddshark gives Trump odds of 200 to one to win. I guess Trump gets better odds because he is an incumbent and bettors are familiar with him.

Here comes the Great White Presidential Hope even though Harris is the Democratic Front Runner

Tellingly, one of my predictions for 2020 is coming true. The old media is going out of its way to manufacture a Great White Male Presidential Hope who is not Trump.

Meanwhile, the old media ignores the probable Democratic Front Runner because she is a woman of color. For example, a January 26 San Francisco Chronicle headline states “2020 betting odds: Kamala Harris, Amy Klobuchar, Michael Bloomberg soar.” Note this is Harris’s hometown newspaper.

In reality, Bloomberg’s odds are the same as those of Vice President Mike Pence (R-Indiana) U.S. Representative Tulsi Gabbard (D-Hawaii); whom I’ve never heard of, and U.S. Senator Amy Klobuchar (D-Minnesota) at 2,500 to one. In fact, Oddshark gives six candidates better odds than Bloomberg.

However, Bloomberg is white and male; and Klobuchar is white so the media trumpets their “success.” Notably, Bloomberg has not said if he is running, so I do not regard him as a serious candidate.

My prediction, once Bloomberg fizzles, the big media will trot out another Great White Male Presidential Hope. Plus journalists will manufacture Great White Female Presidential Hopes if Harris does well. Expect to see a steady stream of such imaginary contenders all year.

Yet another Great White Male Presidential Hope

Notably, Washington Post op-ed writers Nick Troiano and Charles Wheelan are urging another white man; Starbucks CEO Howard Schultz, to launch an “independent presidential run.”

Notably, there is no polling data on Schultz but media outlets like CBS are already giving Schultz more coverage than Harris. Tellingly, Oddshark placed Schultz’s presidential odds at 7,000 to one on 29 January, below such candidates as Dwayne “the Rock” Johnson. Thus even questionable white male candidates are getting more media attention than a formidable woman of color.

My prediction is Harris, like Trump, will have to win a few primaries for the media to take her seriously as a candidate. Meanwhile, egomaniacs like Schultz will get unlimited amounts of media coverage of TV coverage because of their skin color. However, Trump proved that a lot of media coverage can sway voters in 2016. 

Hence, the line of Great White Presidential Hopes will soon stretch around the block. Note, I do not believe Schultz is racist. Instead, the “journalists” covering him are showing an incredible amount of bias.

Harris is the Strongest Democratic Presidential Contender

I think U.S. Senator Kamala Harris (D-California) is the strongest Democratic Presidential Contender, under the present conditions.

The reasons Harris is the strongest Democratic Presidential Contender include:

1.    Harris is African American or Black

For instance, 48% of African Americans identified as “strong Democrat” and 22% of African Americans as not Strong Democrats in 2016, BlackDemogrpahics estimates. Hence 70% of blacks identify as Democrat.

Observers credit African-Americans for the impressive Democratic victory in the 2018 Midterm races for the U.S. House of Representatives, U.S. News & World Report claims. For instance, 77% of blacks polled in July 2018 claimed they planned to vote in November.

Significantly, African-American Democrat Barack Obama (Illinois) easily won two consecutive presidential races. In fact, Obama received more votes than pollsters predicted in 2012; against a formidable Republican candidate Mitt Romney. However, the all-white Hillary Clinton (D-New York) and U.S. Senator Tim Kaine (D-Virginia) ticket lost in a stunning upset in 2016.

2.    Harris is Indian

Hence, Harris’s skin color gives her an unfair advantage. Strangely opponents could hurt Harris by playing up her Indian (Tamil) heritage.

Notably, Harris is reportedly more proud of her Tamil heritage than her father’s Jamaican background. In addition, Harris is closer to the Indian side of her family.

To explain, opponents could win by portraying Harris as an “Oreo;” that is black on the outside but white or brown on the inside. However, such allegations did not work against Obama possibly because white political strategists did not understand them.

On the other hand, Harris can attract support and a lot of cash from Indian Americans. Notably, there are some very wealthy Indian Americans including; Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella, and MasterCard CEO Ajaypal Singh Banga. In fact, attacks on Harris’s Indian heritage could backfire by driving Indian American cash and support to her.

Thus Harris could rake in a lot of cash because of her heritage. In addition, wealthy Indian Americans can pressure the Big Media to treat her fairly.

3.    Harris is a woman

Interestingly, the percentage of women in the US is 50.8% the US Census Bureau estimates. Hence, there are slightly more women than men in America.

More importantly, I think voters are sick of the antics of male politicians like Donald J. Trump and William Jefferson Clinton. The success of Me Too Movement, in particular, demonstrates the population no longer tolerates “boys will be boys.” Thus, women get an unfair advantage in political contests.

4.    Harris can appeal to both leftists and moderate Democrats

To explain, Harris has historically been a moderate but she has come out for popular leftist ideas like Medicare for All and a Basic Income. Thus Harris could be the person who brings the party together.

Unlike leftists; such as Warren, Beto O’Rourke (D-Texas) or U.S. Senator Bernie Sanders (I-Vermont), Harris will not drive moderates away. On the other hand, she can appeal to Bernie, Beto, and Warren supporters.

5.    Harris can appeal to conservatives and moderates

Harris can appeal to conservatives and moderates because of her background. Notably, Harris has a record as a tough on crime prosecutor and a reputation for neoliberal economics.

Thus Harris could appeal to disillusioned conservative and moderate Republicans. Moreover, she could attract corporate cash from business leaders who see Trump‘s erratic behavior as a threat to their bottom lines.

6.    Harris could appeal to a surprising group Evangelical Christians

To explain, some evangelicals are seeking a tough leader to protect them in a Post Christian America. Bizarrely, a subset of evangelicals believes Trump is that leader.

Now that Trump is proving to be a chaos president who is encouraging anti-Christian bigotry, Evangelicals will need a new protector. I predict some Evangelical leaders will write Trump and Republicans off and investigate Democrats.

This is not as farfetched as you think. In 2015, Jerry Falwell Jr. invited U.S. Senator Bernie Sanders (I-Vermont): a self-proclaimed democratic socialist, to speak at Liberty University. In fact, Falwell treated Sanders with far more respect and courtesy than the “progressive” intellectuals did. Notably, Liberty University required students to attend Sanders’ speech, The Washington Post reports.

Thus, Harris could attract evangelical support if she plays her cards right. If evangelicals will vote for a womanizing; thrice-married and liberal former casino owner (Trump) they will vote for Harris.

7.    Harris is from California

To explain, California will be part of the Super Tuesday Primary and it is the nation’s most populous state with 39.54 million residents. Hence, Harris has an unfair advantage as the Golden State’s favorite daughter.

Thus, Super Tuesday could determine the presidential election‘s outcome on March 3, 2020. Interestingly, Beto O’Rourke will have a similar advantage if he runs. To explain, O’Rourke’s home state; Texas which has a population of 29 million people, is part of Super Tuesday.

8.    Kamala Harris is not Donald J. Trump

I think Trump is so unpopular right now any credible Democrat who runs a respectable campaign will beat him. Hence, Harris will face a crowded primary field.

Notably, I place Trump’s odds of reelection at one in five. However, I give any other Republican odds of one in six. To explain, Republicans will face a strong backlash from Trump voters if the Donald is not their candidate.

Plus, Harris’s background as a seasoned political insider could help her. To explain, voters will be sick and tired of the disruptive outsider businessman after four years of Trump. Hence, Trump’s behavior could doom Howard Schultz and Michael Bloomberg‘s campaign before they begin.

Note: the electoral environment could change completely by January 2020. For example, Trump could drop out; which will lead to an open Republican race. Moreover, other candidates could crawl out of the woodwork the way Trump did in 2015.