Market Mad House

In individuals, insanity is rare; but in groups, parties, nations and epochs, it is the rule. Friedrich Nietzsche

Politics

Joe Biden is the New Jeb Bush and Trump is Smarter than you think

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The Big Media is wrong, former Vice President Joe Biden is the new Jeb Bush, not the probable Democratic nominee.

In case you forgot, Jeb Bush is the former President George W. Bush’s (R-Texas) bungling younger brother. Notably, the pundits initially regarded Jeb; the former Florida governor, the frontrunner for the Republican presidential nomination in 2016.

However, Jeb left the race in February 2016, without winning a single state after spending $130 million, The New York Times reports. Like Biden, Bush is a non-ideological and in-offensive establishment favorite.

Moreover, like Biden, Bush had the advantages of name recognition and media attention. Bush even had the backing of an establishment super PAC like Biden. Finally, Bush, like Biden, was an establishment moderate who tried to pass himself off as a fiery ideologue.

Likewise, Biden has the support of Wall Street investment bankers, and other wealthy donors, The Intelligencer claims. Hence, Biden could raise as much or more money than Jeb for his clumsy campaign.

Biden and the Democratic Establishment are already losing

Under these circumstances, I predict Biden will drop out of the race without winning a single state. Additionally, Biden will waste a lot of money to achieve nothing.

Tellingly, political science professor Jennifer Victor thinks U.S. Senator “Kamala Harris (D-California) is the real party favorite.” To explain, most of the Democratic establishment donations are going to the leftwing Harris; and not to Biden, Victor writes at Medium.

Moreover, the April 15 Emerson Poll estimates self-proclaimed socialist U.S. Senator Bernie Sanders (I-Vermont) is leading the Democratic primary race. To explain, Emerson estimates Bernie beats Biden by a margin by five points.

Importantly, Emerson calculates Sanders gets 29% of the theoretical Democratic primary vote (nearly one third) to Biden’s 24%. Hence, Biden is already losing and nearly one third of Democrats will vote for a socialist.

Interestingly, Emerson has party favorite Harris tied for fourth place with Beto O’Rourke (D-Texas) at 8%. Incredibly, the dark horse Pete Buttigieg (D-Indiana) came from nowhere to take third place with 9%.

Will 2020 be 2016 all over again?

Consequently, the Democratic establishment is losing the primary. Hence, the race looks like an alternate universe version of 2016. To explain, this time the Democrats are the Republicans with a messy primary dominated by anti-establishment outsider candidates.

Notably, Democratic voters are skewing left by picking leftists over moderates. In fact, five of the leading candidates; Sanders, Harris, O’Rourke, US Senator Liz Warren (D-Massachusetts) and Andrew Yang (D-New York) take far left positions.

Tellingly, there is a “Never Bernie” movement reminiscent of 2016’s Never Trump Republicans. In fact, The New York Times claims around 100 wealthy Democrats attended a secret anti-Bernie organizing meeting in March in San Francisco.

Will Wall Street Turn Left?

Predictably, some Wall Street Democrats are reaching out to Harris, looking for the leftist they can live with, The Intelligencer claims.

Moreover, I suspect some Wall Street Democrats will soon reach out to their fellow New Yorker Andrew Yang. In particular, Yang’s “Freedom Dividend” Basic Income scheme is popular on social media.

Notably, Emerson calculates Yang is out polling Wall Street favorite; US Senator Cory Booker (D-New Jersey), and tying US Senator Kirsten Gillibrand (D-New York). Specifically, Emerson places Yang and Gillibrand at 3% and Booker at 1%.

Trump is Right to Relive 2016

Hence, Biden will need to turn left if he wants to survive. However, left-leaning voters are unlikely to buy the new leftist Biden. Much as Republican primary voters rejected the “new conservative Jeb Bush” and the “new populist US Senator Ted Cruz (R-Texas)” in 2016.

Therefore, President Donald J. Trump’s (R-New York) focus on reliving 2016 looks smart. In fact, I think Trump understands he will play the role of Hillary R. Clinton (R-New York) in 2020. However, unlike Clinton, the Donald is a clever political analyst and a shrewd strategist who knows how to win.

Trump is following the Right Strategy

To clarify, Trump is the party favorite relying on star power and the establishment to overcome populist challenges. Thus, Trump is correct in his efforts to shore up support among the base with a populist campaign.

To explain, I think 2020 will be a tight presidential election, so both parties will need every vote they can get. Hence, Trump’s strategy of energizing and firing up the base is the correct one.

Moreover, Trump is correctly gauging his support level in the party before launching the campaign. To explain, the Donald does not buy the media bullshit he owns the Republican Party and has undivided support.

Unlike Hillary, Trump is wisely trying to prevent any primary challenge before it develops. To explain, the Donald’s big fear is a populist primary surprise like the one Bernie gave Hillary in 2016. Consequently, Trump’s 2016 obsession could be the basis of a winning strategy in 2020.

Thus, Trump is smarter than the pundits because the Donald learned from 2016. On the other hand, Biden apparently paid no attention in 2016 and did not learn a thing.