Market Mad House

In individuals, insanity is rare; but in groups, parties, nations and epochs, it is the rule. Friedrich Nietzsche

American Express (NYSE: AXP)

Crazy Stocks

Wells Fargo and the Future of Monster Banking

The potential challenges Wells Fargo faces are vast. The greatest of these is falling revenues, which probably reflects the growing implosion of the mortgage market.

Read More
Good Stocks

Surprise American Express is Growing Again

There is a reason why simple reason why American Express is still growing again. Basic credit card services are still a great product for which there is tremendous demand.

Read More
Cryptocurrency

Capital One Keeps Growing

Another opportunity for Capital One investors is all the hysteria about banking being doomed.

The truth is that retail banking is doomed but banking has a long future ahead of it and Capital One will be a big part of it. Capital One’s future is bright because of the extensive business it does on line. It might be in a better position to cash in on the growth of online banking and app-based payments.

Read More
Cryptocurrency

Is American Express’s “Turnaround” for Real?

If American Express can integrate its cards with popular cryptocurrencies; such as bitcoin and ethereum, it would expand its reach particularly in the developing world. An intriguing option would be a card that pays reward points in bitcoin or ethereum. A long term revenue generator would be a card that allows for transactions in several different crypocurrencies; such as Litecoin, Bitcoin and ethereum. A company called TenX is already developing such a card in Singapore.

Read More
The Death Spiral

The Decline of American Express

My take is that American Express is not a good long term investment because its business is not sustainable. There is simply no way that it will be able to keep paying out 32¢ dividends.

American Express is overpriced and headed for a serious fall. Stay away from Amex shares unless you are looking for something to short.

Read More
Grocery WarsLong Ideas

Costco Defies the Odds

Costco has one thing in common with Amazon, it is a very cash rich company. On February 28, 2017 it reported $4.976 billion in cash from operations, $2.384 billion in in net income and $5.965 billion in cash and short-term investments. This was in spite of a free cash flow of -$23 million and a profit margin of 1.73%.

Read More
Long Ideas

Should we be Worried about American Express

American Express also some very bright prospects for the future. One is the growing use of payment apps such as Apple Pay and Android Pay; which Amex supports. That might grow the value of credit card payments and profits from them.

Read More
Grocery Wars

Costco is not Helping Citigroup

Despite the Costco debacle, Citigroup is still making money, because its’ income is increasing.

Citi reported $14.67 billion in net income on September 30, 2016; which was a slight increase over 2015. The bank reported a net income of $14.25 billion in September 2015. Unfortunately the net income has fallen since the Costco deal – it was $15.31 billion in June 2016.

This makes Citi something of a value investment because it can afford to lose a lot of money. Citigroup will survive the Costco troubles, because it can take the hit.

Read More
Long Ideas

Credit Cards’ Bright Future on Display at Discover Financial Services

These numbers; and the 27.77% profit margin reported on September, show that Discover’s decision to concentrate on providing basic credit card services and good customer service is paying off.

By ignoring flashy gimmicks and avowing entanglements with retailers; such as American Express (NYSE: AXP) messy relationship with Costco, Discover has been able to maintain steady market share. It has also accumulated a lot of street cred and good will along the way.

Read More