Consequently, I think present-day prediction markets cannot work. My guess is that prediction markets will need better data aggregation and analysis technology to work. Algorithms that could screen out human emotions or sentiments could make a prediction market effective. On the other hand, artificial intelligence or machine learning could soon provide that technology.Read more
The thinking behind a prediction market is that the wisdom of the crowd can determine the outcome. and collecting bets is the best means of learning what the wisdom of the crowd.
The belief is that markets are the more efficient mechanism for gauging human opinion, and that taking bets is the best way to get honest results from a survey.Read more