Market Mad House

In individuals, insanity is rare; but in groups, parties, nations and epochs, it is the rule. Friedrich Nietzsche


Warren is the Democratic Front Runner

U. S. Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-Massachusetts) is leading the Democratic presidential race because of an incredible streak of luck.

Warren’s closest rival U.S. Senator Bernie Sanders (I-Vermont) could drop out because of health problems. Sanders has canceled all campaign events “until further notice,” the Associated Press reports.

Instead of the campaign trail, Sanders is recovering from heart surgery for a blocked artery. Sanders, 78, claims he will return to the campaign trail but makes no promises.

If Sanders leaves Warren wins and Biden Drops out

I think Warren will win the Democratic primary, if Sanders drops out. Additionally, Sanders’ departure will force media favorite and former Vice President Joe Biden (D-Delaware) to drop out.

To elaborate, my favorite poll Emerson Polling estimates Biden’s support in the national Democratic primary contest at 25%. Meanwhile, Emerson Polling gives Warren 23% of the vote, and Sanders 22%.

I predict most Sanders supporters will switch their allegiance to the left-wing Warren, if Bernie drops out. In fact, I cannot see Sanders supporters voting for Biden, but I can easily imagine Bernie fans supporting Warren.

Moreover, Warren tells CNN’s Anderson Cooper “Bernie, and I have been friends forever.” Hence, I predict Bernie will endorse Warren if he drops out. Thus, almost all Bernie followers will vote for Warren.

Consequently, Warren could have 45% of the Democratic primary vote and Biden 25% of the support. Thus, Warren could be unbeatable. Under those conditions, I predict an old pol like Biden to graciously drop out and endorse Warren.

Will it be Liz Warren vs Andrew Yang?

Furthermore, I think it is too late for a major candidate to enter the presidential race. Thus, moderate fantasies of Hillary R. Clinton (D-New York) riding to their rescue will remain a pipe dream.

Moderate Democrats’ only hope will be Andrew Yang (D-New York), a radical leftist who promotes “human-centered capitalism.” However, Yang’s agenda of basic income, Medicare for All, and a Value-Added Tax (VAT) is to the left of Sanders.

Yet Yang is the only candidate; besides Warren, who is surging in the polls. Emerson Polling estimates Yang’s support doubled from 4% in August 2019 to 8% in September 2019.

In fact, Yang now out polls both South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg (D-Indiana) and U.S Senator Kamala Harris (D-California) in Emerson’s estimate. Emerson put Harris at 4% and Buttigieg at 6% in September 2019.

Given those numbers, I predict some Never Warren Democrats on Wall Street will join the Yang Gang. To clarify, those people will support Yang because he is less likely to regulate their businesses than Warren. In addition, Yang could win Wall Street by aggressively coming out in favor of free trade. Both Trump and Warren are staunch protectionists who favor high tariffs.

Thus the Democratic presidential contest could boil down to Andrew Yang vs. Elizabeth Warren. I predict the media will hate that.

Warren is Incredibly Lucky

Interestingly, Bernie’s heart problems are only the latest bit of luck Warren is enjoying.

Over at The American Conservative our friend Patrick J. Buchanan, observes Liz Warren is “the real winner of a Trump impeachment.” Buchanan’s theory is that impeachment hurts Biden because of the role Joe’s son Hunter Biden plays in the impeachment drama.

To clarify, Democrats allege President Donald J. Trump (R-New York) committed an impeachable offense by pressuring Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to investigate Hunter Biden’s business dealings in Ukraine. Hence, an impeachment inquiry is likely to make Biden look bad and anti-corruption crusader Warren look good.

Meanwhile OneZero blogger Will Oremus thinks The Verge’s recent “leak” of audio of a Facebook (NASDAQ: FB) management meeting helps Warren. To explain, in the audio Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg admits his fear of Warren.

Thus, The Verge and Zuckerberg are strengthening Warren’s reputation as a foe of Big Tech. In today’s political climate, I think the leak will help Warren because of Facebook’s unpopularity.

Why Warren is so Popular

Finally, even the Silicon Valley elite likes Warren. Recode estimates Alphabet (NASDAQ: GOOG) employees give more money to Warren than other Democratic candidates.

In detail, Alphabet (NASDAQ: GOOGL) employees donated $87,066 to Warren’s campaign, $73,319 to Pete Buttigieg (D-Indiana), $58,266 to Bernie, and $54,845 to U.S Senator Kamala Harris (D-California). Tellingly, Alphabet employees donated only $15,150 to Joe Biden and $5,600 to Trump’s reelection effort.

Why are Alphabet employees so enamoured of Warren? I suspect, Alphabet engineers and technicians want a strong government safety net because they fear the direction technology is taking our economy.

Why are Googlers Backing Warren?

I suspect many Alphabet employees fear they will have no jobs in a few years. Notably, Alphabet insiders have a front-row seat for the development of artificial intelligence at Deep Mind and self-driving vehicles at Waymo.

Thus Googlers fear a future of widespread technological unemployment. Moreover, they want leaders willing to expand the safety net to help the victims of the technology jobs apocalypse before the riots begin.

Warren who supports a jobs guarantee; and Social Security increases, could be that candidate. Americans outside of Silicon Valley need to pay attention to the Alphabet employees’ donations. If the people in the know are that afraid of technology, what chance do the rest of us have?

Don’t be Afraid of Impeachment

Impeachment is a normal constitutional process nobody needs to fear, Gene Healy claims. Interestingly, Healy is a vice president at the conservative Cato Institute.

Healy makes a good argument that impeachment is a simple constitutional procedure the Founding Fathers designed to keep executive power in check. Thus, Healy thinks impeachment will not lead to a constitutional crisis. Instead, he believes the government will operate normally despite impeachment.

The political landscape is transforming before our eyes. It looks as if 2020 will be an interesting and fun year for political junkies.