Market Mad House

In individuals, insanity is rare; but in groups, parties, nations and epochs, it is the rule. Friedrich Nietzsche


Why Bernie could win in 2020

I some terrible news for America’s conservatives and libertarians; Bernie could win in 2020. Yes, self-described social democrat US Senator Bernie Sanders (I-Vermont) could be the next President of the United States.

Moreover, Bernie could capture the Democratic Party in the same way President Donald J. Trump (R-New York) seized the Republican Party. To explain, Bernie could become so popular with the Democratic base, few Democratic politicians will challenge him.

Thus, we could see US Representative Nancy Pelosi (D-California) and US Senator Chuck Schumer (D-New York) mindlessly implementing the Sanders agenda. Currently, almost every congressional Republican; including the formerly independent members of the far-right “Freedom Caucus,” now mindlessly adhere to the imbecilic Trump agenda.

Bernie could win because he is the Democratic Trump

Notably, Republican leaders like US Senator Mitch McConnell (R-Kentucky) will go along with anything Trump proposes no matter how silly or destructive. To explain, Republicans go along with Trump because they fear they cannot win a reelection bid without his help.

Now Bernie has the same popularity with the Democratic base. In fact, both the Democratic National Committee and Hillary Clinton spent hundreds of thousands of dollars to fly Bernie to political events, Politico reports.Tellingly, the Democrats flew Bernie to the events because his presence was the only way they could attract a crowd.

Hence, Democratic leaders and officeholders could fall into line behind Bernie in 2020. Moreover, they Democratic leaders could cave to Bernie; or his anointed successor as fast Republican leaders began kowtowing to Trump.

Bernie could win because he is as popular as Trump

Finally, there is evidence Bernie is just as popular in 2019 as he was in 2016. In fact, Sanders raised $5.9 million from 225,000 during the first day of his 2020 presidential campaign on 19 February 2019, The New York Times claims. Meanwhile, the most popular mainstream Democrat US Senator Kamala Harris (California) raised just $1.5 million during her first day of campaigning.

Hence, Bernie has the same strong grass-roots support that characterizes President Donald J. Trump (R-New York). Remember, the party that went with the grass-roots favorite in 2016 won the White House.

Plus, Bernie has the cash which will provide him an edge. In particular Bernie can spend big on things like TV and internet advertising without having to leave the campaign trail to attend fundraisers.

Hence, Bernie has more time to campaign and more money to finance that campaign. Two advantages professional political operatives and strategists are sure to notice.

Bernie can win in Trump Country

Importantly, Bernie is one of the few Democrats popular in Trump Country. In fact, Bernie could be more popular than Trump in some parts of Trump Country.

For instance, I live in a working-class Republican area of Colorado. Yet, by my very unscientific estimation, the Bernie bumper stickers outnumber the Trump bumper stickers five to one. As for the Hillary Bumper stickers I have not seen one since 2016.

Additionally, there is data that indicates Trump’s victory in some supposedly Red States was the result of leftist protest voters showing their displeasure with Hillary Clinton. For instance, University of Massachusetts-Amherst Professor Brian F. Schaffner estimates 12% of Bernie primary voters supported Trump in November 2016.

Importantly, Schaffner claims 117,100 Sanders supporters voted for Trump in Pennsylvania and 47,915 Bernie fans voted for Trump in Michigan. Meanwhile Trump carried Pennsylvania by 44,292 votes and Michigan by 10,704 votes.

Why Democrats could get Behind Bernie

Hence, Democrats could win those states and the White House by choosing Bernie as their presidential nominee. To explain, Democrats will need the Electoral College votes of states like Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Michigan to win the White House.

Significantly, Schaffner’s analysis indicates Bernie could deliver those Electoral College votes. Thus, Democrats who want a president could turn to Sanders. Note, Schaffner’s claims are purely theoretical but he bases them on hard election data from the Cooperative Congressional Election Study, NPR claims.

However, the data indicates Sanders has a grassroots following as great or greater than Trump’s. Importantly, Trump won in 2016, and victory is the most important thing in politics. Hence, Democrats have a strong incentive to nominate Bernie.

Furthermore, the Democratic Party could save a fortune by nominating Bernie. To explain, Bernie could raise enough money to fund his own presidential campaign. Thus, leaving the Democratic Party free to spend its money on Congressional and state races.

Bernie could win because he talks about things people care about

Finally, Bernie could win in 2020 because talks about the issues average people care about.

To explain, Bernie focuses on economic issues and ignores the cultural talking points the intellectuals and pundits love. Moreover, Sanders easily shrugged off cultural-focused attacks including childish accusations of racism in 2016.

For example, here is a Bernie Sanders advertisement that scares American Conservative pundit Rod Dreher to death:

Okay, the poll numbers Sanders references are probably a fantasy but the ideas will resonate with cash-strapped average Americans in the heartland. For instance, the truck driver who has no pension, the small business owner with a sick child and no health insurance, the single-parent who cannot save for her child’s college, and the working stiff who has not had a raise in 40 years.

Notably, a jobs guarantee will appeal to people stuck in gig economy jobs or temporary work. In addition, even the most conservative senior citizens will pay attention to the three magic words “expand Social Security.”

Bernie could win because of identity politics

Unlike, most conservative intellectuals, Dreher understands that many working and middle-class conservatives will love Bernie’s ideas. Consequently, Dreher brands Sanders a member of the “identity-politics left.”

However, I think this stratagem will fail because most Americans do not know what the “identity politics left” is. In addition, most of those who comprehend the identity politics left probably do not care about it.

Moreover, declaring gays, leftist intellectuals, and atheists the enemy will not help Republicans. Americans with no job security, no savings, no pension, and no health insurance. Indeed, many desperate Americans will make common cause with the identity politics left if it promises a jobs guarantee, basic income, a $15-dollar an hour minimum wage, increased Social Security, and Medicare for All.

For instance, a politician who prattles on about identity politics will offend somebody who is having trouble paying the mortgage, or buying his prescriptions. However, that person will listen to Bernie because he at least talks about economic issues, like Trump did in 2016.

In the final analysis, Bernie could win in 2020. Therefore pundits like Dreher and author Robert W. Merry could be prophets. In particular, Merry’s prediction of The Coming Socialist President?Could be a very accurate assessment of the direction American politics will take.

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