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In individuals, insanity is rare; but in groups, parties, nations and epochs, it is the rule. Friedrich Nietzsche

Politics

Why I Dread the 2020 Presidential Election and You should Too

daniel , , , ,

Most Americans say they dread the 2020 presidential election and it is easy to see why. I understand this dread and share it.

In fact, I fear the 2020 election and fear its aftermath because of what happened in 2016. First, we elected an incompetent and corrupt racist buffoon President of the United States.

Second, most Americans did not cast their ballots for that buffoon. To explain, Hillary R. Clinton (D-New York) won 48.2% of the popular vote, CNN estimates.  However, Donald J. Trump (R-New York) a clear majority of the Electoral College 306 to 232, The New York Times reports.

Why we Dread the 2020 Presidential Election

Now data expert, Nate Cohn thinks Trump could win a larger majority of the Electoral College and the Democrat could win a larger majority of the popular vote next year.

In fact, NBC News claims Trump could lose by five million votes but win the electoral college. Meanwhile, The Hill speculates Trump could win the Electoral College by as little as 10 votes.

What happens if Trump wins the Electoral College, but the Democrat wins 52% of the popular vote. In particular, what happens if the Democratic majority of the vote exceeds Trump’s number by 10 million or higher. Notably, Clinton won 65.845 million popular votes to Trump’s 62.980 million, CNN calculates.

We Should Fear Electoral Violence in 2020

Trump’s 2016 victory triggered riots in several large US cities that dragged on for days. A mob in Portland, Oregon, chanted “we reject the president-elect!” The Associated Press reported.  

Even though the American media ignored the violence, riots marred Trump’s 2017 inauguration. In fact, the federal government prosecuted nearly 200 people for involvement in the riots, The Independent reports. Importantly, juries have acquitted several of the inauguration rioters, The Washington Examiner notes.

Given recent history, a Trump victory in 2020 could trigger worse violence and mass civil disobedience. Beyond rioting a Trump victory could trigger mass shootings. Notably, leftist fanatic James Hodgkinson shot up a practice for the Congressional Republicans’ baseball team and wounded GOP House Majority Whip Steve Scalise in June 2017, CNN reports.

If Trump wins or loses, other political extremists could follow Hodgkinson’s example and target elected officials. How will right-wing extremists act if Trump loses and starts Tweeting about voter fraud?

Remember, a close election triggered violence in 2016 and the 2020 election could be far closer. In addition, we will have had four years of inflammatory pro and anti-Trump propaganda to inflame the mobs next year.

Will Americans Accept the Results of the 2020 Presidential Election?

With or without violence, large numbers of Americans may not accept the results of next year’s presidential election.

The August 2019 USA Today/Suffolk Poll estimates that 30% of Republicans and 45% of Democrats admit they have little confidence in the fairness of next year’s elections. Thus, nearly half of Democrats doubt the electoral process.

How is our government supposed to function if 45% of the members of the nation’s largest political party do not accept the President’s legitimacy? Under those circumstances, 42.94 million Americans could consider Trump an illegal president if he wins next year.

To elaborate, Gallup estimates that 29% of Americans are Democrats and WorldoMeters estimates the 2019 US population at 329.065 million. Given those numbers, I estimate there are around 95.43 million Democrats in America and 45% of 95.43 million is roughly 42.94 million.

Yes Dread Next Year’s Presidential Election

The last time such a large segment of the US population felt the president was illegitimate back, in 1860 we had a Civil War. Thus all the Americans who tell the USA Today/Suffolk Poll they dread 2020 have a valid fear.

Contested elections have led to rioting and military coups in countries like Venezuela. The current mess in Venezuela; where two men claim to be the legitimate president, is something Americans could see next year.

I think America will survive 2020 but we could see a hideous electoral season ending in nasty violence. Additionally, that violence could be far worse if the election has no clear winner. We could see a political crisis followed by an unpopular political compromise. That happened in 1876 and saddled America with 90 years of the racist horror known as Jim Crow.

Given these circumstances, I have a feeling large numbers of Americans will take overseas vacations in November 2020. If 2016 is anything to go on, planning a trip to London or Beijing could be a wise thing to do next November.