In individuals, insanity is rare; but in groups, parties, nations and epochs, it is the rule. Friedrich Nietzsche
Costco’s same sales increased by 7% in January, and shopper traffic increased by 5.8% indicating that the retail recovery has definitely reached its warehouse. Meanwhile Sam’s Club’s sales without fuel grew by just 1.6% in the 13 weeks that ended on Jan. 30, 2015, and .5% during the year that ended on Jan. 30, 2015.
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Most investors seem to have missed a massive disruption in the world of American retail. Kroger (NYSE: KR), the venerable grocer, has successfully transformed itself into a highly effective and aggressive bulk discounter with capabilities rivaling those of Costco Wholesale (NASDAQ: COST).
Read MoreThat makes Amazon one of the five largest retailers in America, larger than Target (NYSE: TGT), which reported a TTM revenue of $73.7 billion on Oct. 31, 2014; Walgreens Boots Alliance (NASDAQ: WBA), which reported a TTM revenue of $77.62 billion on Nov. 30, 2014; and Home Depot (NYSE: HD), which reported a TTM revenue of $81.71 billion on Oct. 31, 2014.
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One reason why the poor stay poor is that they often lack the opportunities to save money that middle and even working class Americans enjoy. By save I don’t mean put money in a bank account, which is obviously important, but simply pay less to live.
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The effect of falling oil prices should have us wondering about other commodities and energy in general. As modern technology makes increases the supply of commodities, prices will drop making industries and enterprises unprofitable with devastating effects on employment and the greater economy.
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Many of today’s market rock stars, including Google (NASDAQ: GOOGLE), Amazon (NYSE: AMZN), (Netflix: NASDAQ: NFLX), Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) and Costco Wholesale (NASDAQ: COST), are momentum stocks. The theory driving these stocks is that the new markets these companies create are capable of generating unlimited growth.
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The only way Sprouts would be able to compete with Kroger, Costco and Wal-Mart in deep discounting is to match their wholesale buying power and distribution networks.
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So what will post-consumer society be defined by? My guess is it will be defined by a lot of choices, and a few giant retailers that provide those choices. An example would be Amazon.com.
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The same-day delivery war will be won by the company willing to stick it out, invest money, and spend several years slowly building up and rolling out its service. In that time, we’re liable to see consolidation and alliances Walmart or Amazon.com teaming up with Google Express, or Google contracting with Kroger or Uber to provide deliveries.
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Nor was Chesapeake alone in growing revenues. EOG Resources (NYSE: EOG) reported a TTM revenue of $13.75 billion in September 2013 that grew to $17.14 billion in September 2014, another increase of nearly $4 billion. Devon Energy (NYSE: DVN) reported an even bigger increase. Its TTM revenue grew from $10.35 billion in September 2013 to $16.2 billion in September 2014, an increase of nearly $6 billion.
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