Market Mad House

In individuals, insanity is rare; but in groups, parties, nations and epochs, it is the rule. Friedrich Nietzsche

Politics

Do Democrats want a Bold New Agenda?

daniel , , , ,

Democrats want a bold new agenda in 2020, polling data shows. Strangely, just 25% of Democrats claim they want a new bold agenda in a new Fox News poll.

However, I calculate that 57% of Democrats claim they will vote for candidates supporting radical agendas in the a May 2019 Emerson Poll. In fact, Emerson finds only one moderate; former Vice President Joe Biden (D-Delaware), is doing well in the Democratic primary polling.

Just 33% of Democrats said they will vote for Biden. Meanwhile, several candidates promising radical change attracted the support of 57% of the Democrats Emerson polled.

Most Democrats support Presidential Candidates demanding Radical Change

For instance:

  • Self-proclaimed Socialist US Senator Bernie Sanders (I-Vermont) was polling at 25%.
  • Another 10% of Democratic primary voters support US Senator Kamala D. Harris (D-California). Interestingly, Harris is a former moderate who now supports radical policies like Medicare for All and a basic income.
  • Mayor Pete Buttigieg (D-Indiana) who proposes expanding the US Supreme Court to 15 members and mandatory national service for 18-year-olds receives 8% of the Democratic primary vote.

Radicals get 57% of Democratic vote

Thus, the support for just two radicals exceeds Biden’s. Consequently, all it will take for radicals to stop Biden and clinch the nomination is for a few candidates to drop out. 

Throw in Buttigieg and the radicals are polling at 53%. Add the candidates below and radicals get 57% of the Democratic vote.

  • Basic Income advocate Andrew Yang (D-New York) receives 1% of the likely primary voters’ support.
  • Jobs guarantee proponent US Senator Cory Booker (D-New Jersey) receives 1% of the probable Democratic voters’ support.
  • Isolationist US Congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard (D-Hawaii) who wants a paradigm shift in US foreign policy receives 1% of potential Democratic support.
  • US Senator Kirsten Gillibrand (D-New York); another jobs guarantee and Medicare for All proponent, receives 1% of Democratic support.

Meanwhile, Biden is the moderate Democratic presidential candidate who polls better than 2%. After Biden, the highest polling moderate Emerson could find was Julian Castro (D-Texas) who polls at 2%. No other moderate candidate even polls 1%.

Consequently, I calculate moderates could receive the support of as little as 35% of Democratic primary voters. I conclude a radical will win the Democratic primary.

Why are Democrats Turning so Radical?

Why is there such a disconnect between what Democrats say they want and how they say they will vote?

My guess is most Democrats; like Republicans in 2016, are unhappy with the status quo and uncomfortable with the direction of their party. My view is the dismal economic prospects for average Americans; in particular, are driving frightened voters to the left.

Additionally, radical Democrats; like most radicals, do not see themselves as radicals. Like radical Republicans, who back total deregulation, abortion bans, abolition of the income tax, and activist judges, Democratic radicals do not realize how disruptive their favorite policies are.

Strangely, I do not think Democrats’ radical turn will help President Donald J. Trump’s (R-New York) reelection effort. To clarify, most voters view Trump as radical and disruptive but they find him obnoxious. Accordingly, even Fox News estimates 53% of voters disapprove of Trump.

Sorry Republicans, Radical Democrats Hurt Trump

Thus, I believe that most Americans will vote for the less obnoxious radical or the radical they do not know. Remember, Trump has proven himself a disruptive chaos president, whom many people are sick of.

On the other hand, most Americans are unfamiliar with every Democratic contender other than Joe Biden. Tellingly, 67% of Democrats already admit they will not vote for the moderate Biden.

Those who fear a radical President will face disappointment next year. I predict we will either see a reelection of the radical Trump; or an even more radical Democrat moving into the White House in January 2021.