Market Mad House

In individuals, insanity is rare; but in groups, parties, nations and epochs, it is the rule. Friedrich Nietzsche


Goldman Sachs Bitcoin Value will increase by 52%

Bitcoin prices will grow by 52% in the near future, Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) analyst Sheba Jafari predicted.

Jafari thinks bitcoin will enter a fifth wave that will see its price increase to $3,212 before dropping, CNBC reported. Her expectation is that bitcoin prices will slow then rebound to reach that number.

If that’s true bitcoin prices will increase by around $623.31. The granddaddy of cryptocurrencies was trading at $2,589.91 on July 4, 2017, according to Coinbase. Interestingly enough prices were up slightly on American Independence Day which might be driven by Jafari’s prediction.

“There’s potential to extend as far as $3,915,” Jafari; the investment bank’s head of technical strategy, wrote in a note to clients. “It just might take time to get there.”

Bitcoin Price Drop Expected

Jafari thinks bitcoin is the middle of a “corrective fourth wave” that might end with a big drop in price, Business Insider reported. The drop will be followed by a surge in price to well over $3,000 – possibly to $4,000.

She expects bitcoin to drop in price to around $1,857 before recovering and resuming its upward march. Jafari did give any dates for these events but its’ obvious she expects them in the near future.

Strangely enough Jafari rejects the idea that bitcoin is in a bubble. Instead she seems to think it might be on the verge of a bubble.

Charles Schwab Bitcoin is in a Bubble Like No Other

Bitcoin is in a bubble like no other that defies historical trends Charles Schwab & Company’s Chief Global Investment Strategist Jeffrey Kleintop tweeted on June 29.

He noted that classic bubbles have a 10 year run. Since bitcoin is less than 10 years old (it debuted in 2009) it is either close to the end of a bubble or at the beginning of one. Bubbles usually inflate for around 10 years before bursting, Kleintop noted. If that’s true we won’t see bitcoin burst until sometime around 2027.

Kleintop compared bitcoin with such recent bubbles as NASDAQ, Silver and Homebuilders in the 1990s. A more apt comparison might be gold in the 1970s and early 1980s or in 11. When adjusted for inflation gold never recovered its record price.

The monetary record price for a troy ounce of gold was around $1,900 in 2011. Gold was trading at around $1,225.20 an ounce on July 4, 2017. Not shabby but hardly near its record, bitcoin; which like gold is used as a hedge against inflation, is likely to behave in much the same way.

Kleintop also made an interesting observation that tells us why bitcoin will collapse in the near future before recovering. He wrote: “The biggest political risk for investors in 2017 may be putting too much emphasis on political risk.”

Mr. Kleintop is right here. Investors seem to be putting too much stock in events like Brexit, the antics of Donald J. Trump and the potential demise of his presidency, and turmoil in Washington D.C. This seems to be driving the cryptocurrency boom, one wonders when investors will realize that their fears are hysteria ending the boom.