Market Mad House

In individuals, insanity is rare; but in groups, parties, nations and epochs, it is the rule. Friedrich Nietzsche


Poll 58% of Americans Favor Single-Payer Health Insurance

The December 2019 Emerson Poll estimates 58% of Americans favor government-run single-payer health insurance.

The Emerson Poll taken between 15 and 17 December 2019 shows 32% of voters are “most supportive” of Medicare for All. Conversely, the same poll shows 26% of voters surveyed are “most supportive of the Public Option.”

Strangely, Medicare for All and the Public Option, are close to the same thing. To explain, Medicare for All refers to U.S. Senator Bernie Sanders’ (I-Vermont) plan to ban private health insurance while requiring all Americans to participate in Medicare.

Meanwhile, the Public Option refers to a plan that will offer all Americans the option to use Medicare. Medicare is the federal health insurance plan for senior citizens. Essentially, both plans offer taxpayer financed health insurance to all Americans.

The Public Option is Single Payer Health Insurance

The difference is that most public option plans; such as Mayor Pete Buttigieg’s (D-Indiana) “Medicare for All Who Want It” proposal, allow citizens to choose between private health insurance and Medicare. Thus, Medicare for All Who Want It is single-payer health insurance because it offers taxpayer-financed health insurance to all citizens.

I consider the public option single-payer health insurance because almost all citizens will chose the public option over private health insurance. For example, nearly 90% of Americans over 50 are on Medicare or expect to enroll, the Nationwide Retirement Institute estimates.

Americans like the Public Option

Thus, 90% of Americans over 50 vote with their feet and want Medicare. Hence, the public wants Medicare for all even if they do not admit it.

Strangely, Americans told Emerson they were least supportive of Medicare for All. To explain, 42% of Americans were least supportive of Medicare for All while 10% were least supportive of the public option.

Therefore, 90% of Americans have a favorable opinion of the public option (single-payer) health insurance. I suspect that will create problems for Republicans next year.

Thus, I think Americans prefer the public option to Medicare for All. That could be bad news for Medicare for All champion Bernie Sanders (I-Vermont) next year.

Three Democrats beat Trump

Interestingly, the Emerson Poll shows all the Democrats could beat President Donald J. Trump (R-New York) in a hypothetical head-to-head matchup.

In detail, Emerson projects Sanders could beat Trump by a 52% to 48% margin. Meanwhile, former Vice Vice President Joe Biden (D-Delaware) also beats Trump by a margin of 52% to 48%.

In addition, Emerson estimates U.S. Senator Liz Warren (D-Massachusetts) could beat Trump by a margin of 50% to 48%. This is the first time, Emerson data shows Warren beating Trump. By a margin of 51% to 49%. Additionally, Mayor Buttigieg (D-Indiana) ties Trump with a margin of 50% to 50% in Emerson’s poll.

Biden is Doing Surprisingly Well

Biden is doing well, despite his utterly incompetent campaign. For instance, the Emerson Poll shows Biden beating Trump in the head-to-heads for the first time.

Interestingly, Biden is leading the Democratic pack at 32%, while Sanders comes in second at 25%. Biden’s support rose by 5% from November, probably because U.S. Senator Kamala Harris (D-California) dropped out of the race. Harris was the only credible black candidate in the race.

Biden does well among specific groups. For instance, Emerson estimates 52% of African Americans support Biden. Blacks back Biden because he was President Barack Obama’s (D-Illinois) vice president. Additionally, 45% of voters over 50 support Biden.

However, Biden does poorly among all other ethnic groups. For example only 24% of whites, and 27% of Hispanic/Latin voters back Biden. Biden also has a youth problem, only 36% of voters under 50 support Joe.

Bernie is the Democrat most likely to Beat Trump

Accordingly, another poll (Reuters/Ipsos) finds Sanders performs best against Trump in a hypothetical head to head, Paste reports. A Reuters/Ipsos Tweet shows Sanders at 40% and Trump at 36%. In contrast Reuters/Ipsos has Biden at 39% and Trump at 35%.

Meanwhile, Reuters/Ispos estimates Warren beats Trump by 38% to 36% and Reuters/Ipsos has Trump and Buttigieg nearly tied at 36% to 35%. Interestingly, Reuters/Ipsos shows former Republican and New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg (?-New York) almost ties Trump at margin of 36% to 35%.

Thus the race will be close and Biden is a credible candidate. However, both polls show Bernie is the Democrat most capable of beating Trump.

Sorry Media Pete Buttigieg is not a serious candidate

Interestingly, the basic income advocate Andrew Yang (D-New York) does well among Latinos with 12% of the Latinx vote. In contrast, Yang only had 6% of the overall vote, Emerson estimates.

Emerson Research Assistant Brendan Lane notes that “the fact that Pete Buttigieg garners absolutely no support among African-American and Hispanic voters is a major problem for his campaign as he will struggle to compete in the early states beyond Iowa and New Hampshire unless that changes.”

Thus, I conclude Buttigieg is not a serious candidate who will drop out. In contrast I think Andrew Yang will be competitive in white majority states and states with large Hispanic populations. That could spell disaster for Buttigieg and Biden on Super Tuesday when several high population states; including Texas and California, with large Hispanic minorities vote.

My advice to Emerson is to add Andrew Yang to its 2020 head-to-heads. I think Yang has a better chance of winning the Democratic nomination than Buttigieg or Bloomberg. To explain, I cannot picture a candidate who gets no votes from people of color, winning the Democratic nomination.

The Democrats have a Male Problem

Strangely, Democrats biggest problem in 2020 could be men. Trump beats four big Democratic candidates by healthy margins in Emerson’s 2020 head-to-head imaginary races.

For instance, Trump beats Biden by a margin of 56% to 44%, Sanders by a margin of 54% to 46%, Warren by a margin of 58% to 42%, and Buttigieg b a margin of 56% to 44%. It appears sexism is alive and well at the American ballot box.

Misogyny appears to be an effective political platform in 2020 America. That could benefit the Donald next year. Democrats need to figure out how to attract male voters. Interestingly, Sanders’ success shows, one way to lure male voters is with hard-left policies.

Republicans Have a Woman Problem

Conversely, Republicans biggest problem in 2020 could be women. Emerson’s head-to-heads show Trump loses badly to any Democrat among women.

Specifically, Biden and Warren each beat the Donald by a margin of 59% to 41%. Meanwhile Sanders Trump by a margin of 58% to 42% in Emerson’s hypothetical match up. Even the pathetic Pete Buttigieg beats Trump by a margin of 55% to 45% among women.

I think Emerson’s data shows Republicans need to attract women voters. However, appealing to women could be impossible as long as super misogynist Donald J. Trump (R-New York) is the Grand Old Party’s star attraction.

The polls show the 2020 election will be close and confusing. Expect to see some big surprises in the Democratic primaries and in November.