One thing is certain about Donald Trump and his followers; they are not paying attention to demographics, data and numbers. Strangely enough, this approach helped Donald in the Republican primary; but it could hurt him badly in the general election.
The available polling and data numbers should scare Republicans to death. If the polls are accurate; the GOP is positioning itself for the party’s worst defeat since Lyndon B. Johnson trounced US Senator Barry Goldwater (R-Arizona) way back in 1964.
The numbers that should most worry the Republicans include:
- 75.4 million – that is the number of Millennials; persons aged 18-34, in the US population. Millennials are now the largest US generation of voting age, exceeding even Baby Boomers; those aged 51-69. There were 74.9 million Boomers and 75.4 million millennials in the US in 2015 according to Pew Research and the US Census Bureau.
- Trump’s appeal is mainly to Baby Boomers, that should worry Republicans because when Generation X; those aged 35 to 50 is added to Millennials, Boomers are outnumbered two to one. There were 66 million Generation Xers; and 75.4 million Millennials in 2015, according to the Census Bureau. When added together it makes for 141.9 million people; a significant percentage of whom loathe Trump.
- Even if the so called Silent Generation; those between 70 and 87 years of age, is added to the mix Trump is heavily outnumbered. There were 28 million members of the Silent Generation in 2015 according to Pew. Add that to 74.9 million and you get 102.9 million. In the age demographics contest, Hillary comes out way ahead.
- These numbers should worry Republicans because only 19% of people under 35 said they would vote for Trump over Hillary in November, a March USA Today poll found. 52% of Millennials said they would vote for Hillary if the choice were between her and Donald.
- 22.6% – this is the percentage of the US population that is nonwhite; or admits to being “nonwhite,” according to the US Census bureau. That should scare Republicans to death because in March, USA Today found that 61% of Hispanics, 60% of Asian Americans and 67% of African Americans preferred Clinton to Trump.
- 50.8% – that is the percentage of America’s population that is female. This spells potential disaster because 73% of female voters in a CNN/ORC poll from Mid-March said they had an unfavorable view of Trump. If this is true two thirds of the members of America’s largest demographic group have a negative view of the GOP candidate.
- 270 – That is the number of votes in the Electoral College that a candidate will need to win the presidency.
- 201 – that is the number of electoral votes in safe Democratic states in the USA, according to National Public Radio. If this number is accurate Hillary already has more than two thirds of the votes she needs to reach the White House.
- 180 – that is the number of electoral votes in safe Republican or “red” states in the US. This could be bad news for Donald because some of the “safe” Republican states are conservative bastions; like Utah, Kansas and Texas, which are likely to go for a conservative third party alternative to Donald. Texas could be a real problem because it has 38 electoral votes. Even if Trump wins every red state he will still be 90 votes short of what he needs for victory.
- Five – that is the number of states leaning Democratic. These states have 69 electoral votes. Add these states to the 201 safe Democrat electoral votes and Hillary wins the election by 270 to Trump’s 180 to 191.
- One – that is the number of swing states leaning Republican. That state is Arizona, which has just 11 electoral votes.
- Five – that’s the number of toss-up states; which have 77 electoral votes. Only two of these states; North Carolina and Ohio, have the demographics that favor Donald. IE: large rural populations and rustbelts with lots of empty factories and disgruntled workers. Two others; Colorado and Florida, lean Democrat with large nonwhite populations. Large African American populations in North Carolina and Ohio could tip the balance to Hillary. Note: Donald could win all of the toss-up states and still lose because he would have 257 votes, 13 short of the magic number of 270.
- Two – that’s the number of high population states which are solid Republican. Those states are Texas; with 38 electors, and Georgia which has 16 votes. Since Trump lost the Republican primary in Texas, that state could be a problem for him. These states have 49 electoral votes between them.
- Three – that’s the number of high-population states which are solidly Democratic. This number does sound like much until you realize that those states; California, New York and Illinois, have 104 electoral votes between them. For the record California has 55 votes, New York 29 and Illinois 20. Only solid Republican state; Texas, has more than 20 electoral votes. Hillary could win by concentrating on those states.
- If these numbers are accurate; to win Trump would have to carry all the Republican states, win all the toss-up states and carry several Democrat or Democratic-leaning states. All Hillary would have to do to win would be to carry the solid blue and Democratic leaning states.
- 93.21 million – that’s the number of Democrats in the United States if a January 11, 2016 – Gallup Poll was accurate. The poll found that 29% of Americans identified themselves as Democrats. The US Census Bureau found that America’s population was around 321.419 million in July 2015; 29% of that is 93.21 million.
- 57 million -that’s the number of Republicans in the United States based on the same Gallup Poll; which found that 26% of Americans identified themselves as GOP members. If these numbers are correct, Democrats outnumber Republicans by around 10 million.
- 99 million – that’s the number of Americans that identified themselves as independents with no political party if Gallup’s survey is accurate. Around 42% of respondents told Gallup that they identify with neither party. This is the one number that favors Donald; who has no real party loyalty or obvious affiliation. Trump spent most of his life as a Democrat; but he jumped to the GOP a few years ago, and Donald holds many political positions that are closer to Hillary’s policies than most Republicans’ views. Trump’s independence is closer to the mainstream than either party’s platform.
The numbers seem to favor Hillary but we must be skeptical. In last year’s British election pollsters predicted that the both the opposition Labour Party and the far-right United Kingdom Independence Party or UKIP; which advances positions similar to Trump’s, would do far better than they actually did. Instead of the close election predicted, Prime Minister David Cameron and his Conservatives won a solid majority.
My prediction is that Hillary will win the election by a large margin because the numbers favor her. I would also surmise that Hillary’s majority will be larger than what the polls indicate, because of her opponent’s unpopularity. Hillary could the first Democrat since her husband Bill, to get a substantial number of votes from Republicans and Republican-leaning independents.
That margin could be very large; if Clinton succeeds in capitalizing upon popular fears about Trump’s radical positions on trade and immigration. Much of Cameron’s success in the British election stemmed from fears of radical actions by Labour; or UKIP, that would damage the economy.
At the end of the day the numbers indicate that Republicans will have to go back to the drawing board after November. They could end up much like Britain’s Labour Party; an ineffective minority with a strong regional and class base, rather than a national party.
Donald Trump can go back to his golf game and real-estate development business. The numbers show us that the closest Donald will get into the White House next year is to drop by and pick his buddy; Bill Clinton, up for a round of golf.