Market Mad House

In individuals, insanity is rare; but in groups, parties, nations and epochs, it is the rule. Friedrich Nietzsche


A Trump Victory could be good for Democrats

Bizarrely, a Donald J. Trump Sr. (R-Florida) second term could be the best scenario for Democrats and leftists. Unfortunately, most Democrats and leftists cannot see the opportunity Trump offers them.

There are many ways a Trump victory in November will help Democrats. In addition, I think a Trump victory could make the Left into America’s dominant political force.

Sadly, Trump Derangement Syndrome so warps the brains of many Democrats and leftists  they cannot see the opportunity in front of their faces. Instead, all these people see is the fantasy of Trump as a supervillian destroying American democracy.

How Trump Helps Democrats and Strengthens the Left

The ways Trump helps Democrats are almost too numerous to count. Here are some of the most noticeable ways Trump helps the Left.

First, Trump discredits both conservatism and the Republican Party. Many Americans no longer view the Republican Party or conservatives as serious political movements because of Trump.

Indeed, polls show more and more Americans want nothing to do with the Republican Party. For instance, the number of registered voters identifying as “independents” outnumbered those claiming to be Republicans for the first time in February 2020, The Hill claims.

In detail, 29.09% of registered voters identified as independent and 28.87% called themselves Republicans, in a Ballot Access News poll. In contrast, Republicans made up 32.79% voters and 23.15% of voters were independent in 2004.

The Hill estimates 39.66% of voters identified as Democrats in February 2020. Similarly, Gallup estimates only 26% of American adults identified as Republicans in July 2020, while 32% claimed to be Democrats.

Younger Voters hate Trump

Second, Trump’s unpopularity with younger voters will make it tough for Republicans in the future. For instance, the Harvard Youth Poll estimates probable voters under 29 prefer Joe Biden (D-Delaware) to Trump by a margin of 60% to 30%.

Moreover, only 8% of Americans under 29 believe the US government is working. Hence, 92% of Americans under 29 think the US government does not work.

Additionally, 52% of Americans over 45 voted for Trump in 2016, Roper estimates. Meanwhile only 41% of Americans under 44 and 36% of Americans under 29 voted for the Donald in 2016.

Therefore, Trump has no appeal for younger voters. That will make it difficult for a Trump-centric Grand Old Party (GOP) to win elections in a few years. It also spells doom for Donald J. Trump Junior’s (R-New York) career plans.

Trump does not help other Republicans

“Never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake.” — Emperor Napoleon I

Third, Trump does not help other Republicans win. Oddly, the intensity and passion of Trump supporters does not translate into votes for other Republicans.

For example in North Carolina, the 24 August 2020 Morning Consult Poll shows Trump at 46% and U.S. Senator Thom Tillis (R-North Carolina) at 39%. Similarly, an August 21, 2020, Redfield & Wilton Strategies Poll shows Trump leading Biden by 46% to 44%.

In the same poll, Redfield & Wilton had Tillis losing to Cal Cunningham by a 47% to 38% margin. Meanwhile, Governor Roy Cooper (D-North Carolina) was beating Lieutenant Governor Dan Forest (R-North Carolina) by 51% to 38% in Redfield & Wilton’s estimate. In Arizona, an 11 August Emerson Poll puts Trump at 47% and U.S. Senator Martha McSally (R) at 41%.

These polls indicate many voters do not equate Trump with the Republican Party. Consequently, these voters vote for Democrats. Republicans need to ask themselves why.

My guess is that more voters approve of Trump’s agenda of mindless patriotism,  white supremacy, economic nationalism, and immigration restriction than the GOP platform of free market fundamentalism, neoliberalism, neoconservatism, and austerity. Unfortunately, in office Trump mindlessly embraces the Republican Party line.

Thus, Trump in the White House helps down ballot Democrats. Remember Democrats won control of the US of Representatives in 2018 despite heroic campaigning by the President.

Indeed, you can argue that Trump’s presence on the ballot and the media makes it difficult for down ballot Republicans to campaign. To elaborate, elections become about Trump and not the candidates which helps Democrats in many states.

A Trump Victory could destroy the Democratic Establishment

Fourth, a Trump victory in November could destroy and discredit the Democratic Establishment. A corrupt pro-corporate party establishment blocks the Left’s progress in the Democratic Party.

This establishment builds its power on the theory that there is a Secret Silent Majority of reasonable moderate Americans who will always vote for a moderate Democrat. This belief is Democratic dogma although Hillary Clinton’s (D-New York) 2016 defeat casts doubt upon it.

The Moderate Silent Majority narrative appeals to corporate Democrats because it keeps populist and progressive economics off the party agenda. To elaborate, the myth teaches the Moderate Silent Majority is fiscally conservative and opposed to all tax increases and any increase in benefit payments.

Hence, the Silent Moderate Majority myth frees Democrats from campaigning for benefit raises or welfare state expansion that could lead to tax increases. Consequently, moderate Democrats do not have to fear losing campaign contributions from the rich.

A Trump Victory could kill Democratic myths

I think the Moderate Silent Majority hypothesis cripples Democratic candidates by preventing them from making their most popular appeals on the campaign trail. Take Social Security, for example 85% of Americans say Social Security is more important than ever, the National Association for Social Insurance estimates.

Logically, that shows Social Security increases could be a popular issue. Yet almost no Democrat runs on a “more Social Security” platform because Social Security increases could require tax increases.

In December 2019, nearly nine of out of 10 Americans over 65 received Social Security payments, the Social Security Administration (SSA) estimates.* Yet Democrats refuse to discuss Social Security and complain that older voters ignore them.

Ironically, Democrats complain they cannot appeal to older voters. Yet they refuse to mention the one policy that will ensure support from older voters: Social Security increases.

Is there a Silent Progressive Majority?

Moreover YouGov ranks U.S. Senator Bernie Sanders (I-Vermont); an outspoken proponent of massive welfare state expansion, as the fourth most popular politician in America. In detail, YouGov gives Sanders, who lost the Democratic primary, a 45% approval rating and Democratic nominee Joe Biden (D-Delaware) a 40% approval rating.

Conversely, an April 2017 Harvard-Harris Poll named Sanders “the most popular politician in America” with a 54% approval rating. Moreover, Harvard-Harris calculates Sanders’ approval rating exceeded that of the second most popular politician in America. That pol was U.S. Vice President Mike Pence (R-Indiana) who had a 44% approval rating.

Therefore, I think the polls indicate there is a Silent Progressive Majority rather than a Silent Moderate Majority. Consequently, I think Democrats could win by running on a welfare state expansion platform.

Why the Swing Voter needs to die

However, that platform is off the agenda because the Democratic establishment does not want to raise rich people’s taxes. Disgustingly, Democratic strategists use another myth they call the “Swing Voter hypothesis” to justify this self-serving behavior.

To elaborate, the Swing Voter is an affluent; or middle-class, white person who only votes for Democrats when they promise low taxes. However, 77% of Americans say they will pay more taxes to strengthen Social Security, the National Association for Social Insurance claims. Thus, I consider the Swing Voter a figment of the strategists’ imagination.

One way to discredit the Moderate Silent Majority and Swing Voter hypotheses is for Biden to go down in defeat. If Biden loses on a platform tailored to attract the Swing Voter, it could force Democrats to reject both the Secret Silent Majority and the Swing Voter.

Would a Biden Victory be bad for Democrats?

Sadly, I think Biden could sleepwalk towards victory. To elaborate, I think Biden could win because of COVID-19 and the Coronavirus Depression.

For instance, an 11 August Emerson Poll estimates Biden was leading Trump by seven points; or 53% to 47% in Arizona. Conversely, an 18 August 2020 On Message Inc. poll estimates Trump was leading Biden by three points, or 51% to 48%.

Similarly, On Message estimated Trump and Biden were tied at 49% each in Florida on 18 August 2020. However, Public Policy Polling estimates Biden was leading Trump by a margin of 48% to 44% in Florida on 25 August 2020. Incredibly, Public Policy Polling estimates Biden was leading Trump by 1%, or 48% to 47% in Texas on 21-22 August 2020. In contrast, YouGov estimates Trump was leading Biden by 7%, or 48% to 41% on 17 August 2020.

I think Biden is leading in states such as Florida and Arizona and competitive in Texas, because of coronavirus. Notably, Worldometers estimates there were 11,503 coronavirus deaths in Florida, 13,061 coronavirus deaths in Texas, and 5,065 coronavirus fatalities in Arizona as of 2 September 2020.

Hence, the only way a moderate corporate Democrat; such as Biden, can win is when an enormous catastrophe such as coronavirus takes down the other guy. Unfortunately, corporate Democrats will not learn that lesson.

Instead, the corporate Democrats will delude themselves into thinking Biden won because of his “decency.” Consequently, a smarter and more sophisticated version of Trump or Bernie Sanders will shock pundits in 2024 by besting whatever “pragmatic leader” corporate Democrats dig up.