In individuals, insanity is rare; but in groups, parties, nations and epochs, it is the rule. Friedrich Nietzsche
A major threat to Family Dollar, and Colgate Palmolive, is Amazon Prime which gives consumers free shipping on all their basic needs for $12 a month. Statista estimates there were 103 million US Amazon Prime subscribers in March 2019 up from 95 million in June 2018.
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All this indicates that there might be millions; perhaps tens of millions of Americans, that can no longer afford to shop at Walmart. That’s a pretty frightening situation and it bodes ill for a great many retailers and their vendors.
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The future for traditional consumer brands looks pretty dismal. Expect to see major consolidation in the consumer products industry in the near future, as companies like Kellogg have a difficult time maintaining market share.
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Instead value investors looking to make a consumer defensive-play should consider retailers like Costco, Kroger, Walmart and Walgreen. Those companies are best poised to take advantage of the new retail realities with deep discounting and large footprints that provide the low prices today’s consumer wants.
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