Market Mad House

In individuals, insanity is rare; but in groups, parties, nations and epochs, it is the rule. Friedrich Nietzsche

AAPL

Market Insanity

Staples’ Purchase of Office Depot Makes No Sense

My prediction: if the merger goes through, there will be bigger losses at Staples as it tries to divest itself of all those stores. The revenue and the stock value of the new Staples will plummet because of those losses. Those losses will come as Staples faces more competition online.

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Long Ideas

Are Amazon.com and E-Commerce Driving Grocers’ Growth?

What is the correlation between online retail’s growth and grocers’ growing revenues? The answer is a rather simple one: the grocery store is the one large retail outlet that most people still have to visit on a regular basis.

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My Thoughts

Momentum for Stocks

Many of today’s market rock stars, including Google (NASDAQ: GOOGLE), Amazon (NYSE: AMZN), (Netflix: NASDAQ: NFLX), Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) and Costco Wholesale (NASDAQ: COST), are momentum stocks. The theory driving these stocks is that the new markets these companies create are capable of generating unlimited growth.

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Politics

How Digital Wallets Could Help the Poor and Reduce the Cost of Government

Since most poor people have or could easily buy a smartphone, the government could simply disperse the aid to an app such as Venmo or Apple Pay. This would eliminate the paperwork, and it could be used to greatly reduce the bureaucracy.

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Market CommentaryMy Thoughts

Some Predictions for 2015

PayPal will start disrupting the financial services industry as soon as it gets spun off by eBay Inc. (NASDAQ: EBAY). Expect PayPal to unveil its version of Apple Pay in the form of a souped-up Venmo and enter the banking industry, possibly by buying a bank.

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Long Ideas

Where Is Apple Pay Actually Accepted?

Finding a store that takes Apple Pay may only be half the battle because a lot of banks don’t support the app yet. To make matters worse, banks appear to be very selective about which of their accounts support Apple Pay and which don’t. Some banks allow it for credit and debit cards, while others do not.

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Market Insanity

LifeLock Investing in Hot Air

This makes LifeLock like an insurance company; the memberships give it float, a pool of cash it can access at any time for various purposes. Value investors know that Warren Buffett loves float; that’s one of the reason why he invests in things like insurance companies. They have lots and lots of float.

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My Thoughts

Are Digital Wallets a Threat to Banks?

The threat to banks is best shown by PayPal’s growth rate. PayPal’s mobile payment volume increased by 72% between the third quarters of 2013 and 2014, growing to $12 billion. Mobile payments now make up 20% of PayPal’s payments. Venmo, a mobile payment App offered by PayPal subsidiary Braintree, saw its payment volume grow by 50% between the third quarters of 2013 and 2014.

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