Market Mad House

In individuals, insanity is rare; but in groups, parties, nations and epochs, it is the rule. Friedrich Nietzsche


Trump Impeachment Odds have increased

The odds of an impeachment of President Donald J. Trump (R-New York) have grown slightly. Two online oddsmakers are taking Trump impeachment slightly more seriously.

The Irish-based Paddy Power now rates the odds of impeachment at four to seven. Paddy Power is now offering three Trump impeachment special bets, a year that Trump is impeached, will Trump be impeached in his first term, and disturbingly will the New York Stock Exchange suspend operation in the event of an impeachment?

Paddy Power gives even odds for a 2018 impeachment, and six to one odds for a 2019 impeachment. The odds for a 2020 impeachment were 33 to one on 6 January 2018. The odds against a Trump Impeachment in the first term were five to four.

Over at the Predict It probability market the odds that Trump will be president at year end 2018 actually rose by 2 ¢to 74¢ on 6 January. Predict It’s odds that Trump will be president at the end of 2019 were even better at 63¢ for to 37¢ against.

The change odds indicates that interest in impeachment will increase in political betting markets like those maintained by William Hill in the United Kingdom. That does not mean bettors believe impeachment is probable, they just think it is a realistic possibility.

It looks as if bettors do not take the possibility of a Trump impeachment that seriously. Perhaps the rest of us should take notice.

Voters think Trump is a Conservative

President Trump may not be a conservative, but voters seem to think he is. Around 50% of voters branded Trump a conservative in a 2 January Economist/YouGov poll. The same poll found that only 19% of voters think the Donald is moderate, and 5% considered him liberal.

There is some data that ranks Trump more conservative than Ronald Reagan. The on the issue scoring of conservatism gave Trump almost as high a rating in conservatism as Reagan, FiveThirtyEight reported.

On the Issues gave Reagan a 33.3 score on social issues and Trump a score of 30 in his first-year office. Trump’s score on economic issues, also 30 was slightly higher than Reagan’s which was 27.8. Interestingly enough, Trump’s score is equal to that of George W. Bush – which was also 60.

Tellingly, voters now view Trump as more conservative than they did last year. Back in January 2017, most people did not consider Trump as conservative, instead only 42.5% of Americans ranked him as Conservative, according to YouGov and The Economist. By January 2018, 50% of Americans viewed the Donald as conservative, FiveThirtyEight data indicates.

This might not be good news for Trump in a nation that is increasingly skewing left, although it may shore up support for him among the Republican base. Whether that will be enough to offset his losses among mainstream voters will be determined by the ballot box.