In individuals, insanity is rare; but in groups, parties, nations and epochs, it is the rule. Friedrich Nietzsche
That leads me to reiterate an opinion I’ve expressed about Big Lots before, this company is simply not generating enough cash to survive. My prediction is that this chain will either collapse or merge with another retailer, unless it can greatly increase its cash flow.
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The only bright spot here is that Amazon does not appear to be taking business from Walmart. Instead it appears that Amazon’s growth is coming at the expense of more upscale retailers such as Target and department stores like Macy’s (NYSE: M). Macy’s sales are so bad that chain is planning to close around 100 stores this year.
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The Marketplace is also a potential threat to Amazon because it could be used as a combination store and fulfillment center; something that Kroger’s King Soopers subsidiary is already experimenting with in Denver. I’ve actually been shopping there and seen employees pulling online orders from the shelves.
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Americans have become far more selective about their spending; and old-fashioned 1980s style conspicuous consumption and shopping for shopping’s sake is out. Americans are shopping less and spending only on the things they really need or care about.
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My take is that both Visa and MasterCard are overpriced; and headed for a fall, but Discover is not. Visa in particular is on shaky ground because its booming revenue is not translating into net income.
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Naturally investors will wonder if anybody could compete with Amazon. Interestingly enough there is one potential threat to Amazon – the combination of Walmart and Jet.com.
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A Walmart press release stated that use of the app increased by 45% during its first week of use. Walmart Pay is a potential cash cow because Ant Financial; the Alibaba Holdings’ (NYSE: BABA) spinoff that operates Ali Pay, has an estimated value of $60 billion.
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The future for traditional consumer brands looks pretty dismal. Expect to see major consolidation in the consumer products industry in the near future, as companies like Kellogg have a difficult time maintaining market share.
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Citigroup received more than 1.5 million customer-complaint phone calls about the Costco Everywhere Card during the first two days of the roll out; June 21-23, Bloomberg reported. Costco also took a lot of heat; with its Facebook page filling up with complaints about the Visa product.
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Instead value investors looking to make a consumer defensive-play should consider retailers like Costco, Kroger, Walmart and Walgreen. Those companies are best poised to take advantage of the new retail realities with deep discounting and large footprints that provide the low prices today’s consumer wants.
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