In individuals, insanity is rare; but in groups, parties, nations and epochs, it is the rule. Friedrich Nietzsche
In detail, Ratuken Intelligence estimates Amazon’s share of US ecommerce sales fell from 35.1% in 2017 to 33.7% in 2018. Additionally, Amazon’s share of the US ecommerce market was 28.9% in November 2018. On the other hand, Amazon’s share of America e-commerce rose to 39% during the December 2018 holiday buying frenzy.
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What was scary was that the Free Cash Flow shrank as the revenues grew – falling to -$699 million. Federal Express has to spend more money to move more freight to generate more revenue, yet ends up with less cash at the end of the day.
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Currently, I’m leery of both UPS and FedEx because of the danger they are in, in a changing retail market. Threats to these companies abound from both new businesses and new technologies.
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FedEx benefits because it is still Walmart’s delivery service of choice for online orders. Walmart’s push to attract new rural, middle-class and upper-class customers will benefit FedEx because those customers rarely go near Walmart stores. An example of this push was the purchase of the men’s clothing site Bonobos which sells mostly online to males that hate to shop.
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This might make Office Depot more of an electronics services firm and put it in a good position to form some sort of partnership with Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN). An obvious future for Office Depot would be a service center for Amazon electronics and a brick and mortar location for Amazon returns and pickups. A logical move for Amazon would be to buy Office Depot.
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It looks as if Walmart is actually beating Amazon in the delivery wars.
The discount giant has expanded its same-day service which was only available in Tampa and Phoenix to those cities, CNBC reported. Walmart customers in Denver are able to get orders delivered by Lyft, the article did not say if that service will be expanded.
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If you are looking for a company to invest to take advantage of the ecommerce boom; Boeing is a far better deal than Amazon. Even if Amazon’s air force fails to fly; Boeing is still going to make a lot of money from online retail.
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My prediction is that both of the big delivery services are on shaky ground, because two of their major customers; Walmart and Amazon want to severe that relationship. The situation is made worse by Uber; a company that has demonstrated it can quickly build a widespread transportation network with limited resources.
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At this rate it looks as if FedEx will soon catch up with UPS in revenue. It also looks like FedEx still has momentum while UPS does not. It also looks as if FedEx will top the $50 billion revenue mark sometime this year.
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