Apparently, President Trump is afraid of U.S. Senator Kamala Harris (D-California).
For instance, bettors at the Predictit probability market chose Harris as the probable Democratic presidential contender in 2020. Yet, Donald J. Trump (R-New York) is ignoring her and targeting his Twitter attacks on U.S. Senator Liz Warren (D-Massachusetts).
To explain, Predictit’s were more likely to bet on Harris than Warren. Notably, the Predicit bettors wagered just 8¢ on a Warren victory and 92¢ on a Warren loss on 28 October 2018. Strangely, Harris and former Vice President Joe Biden (D-Delaware) received equal numbers.
Voters bet 12¢ on a Harris victory and 89¢ on a Harris loss. Conversely, the betters wagered 43¢ on a Trump victory and 58¢ on a Trump loss.
Why Trump is Afraid of Harris but not Warren
These numbers will cause voters to ask why is Trump tweeting about Warren and ignoring more probable candidates like Harris and Biden?
I think the Donald considers Harris his strongest potential opponent for 2020. For instance, Harris is black, which guarantees a high African-American turnout. Pointedly, Trump received just 12% of the African-American vote in 2016.
To clarify, the 2020 presidential election is likely to be as close as the 2016 contest. Markedly, Trump won the 2016 election with a razor-thin margin of 107,000 votes in three states, The Washington Post calculates.
Trump is Afraid because African Americans will choose the Next President
Therefore, all a Democrat needs to win is to get another 100,000-150,000 African Americans to the polls. Thus, the easiest path to victory for Democrats is run a black candidate.
To demonstrate, the African-American vote declined by 4.7% between 2012 and 2026, Vox estimates. In 2012 Democrats ran the very black Barrack Obama (D-Illinois), in 2016 they nominated Hillary “whitebread” Clinton (D-New York).
Voter suppression caused some of that decline, but so did black backlash. I suspect a lot of African-Americans either stayed from the polls; or voted for Trump, to punish the Democrats for nominating Hillary.
Hence, Democrats could pick up 100,000 to 500,000 votes and win in 2020 by running an African-American. If Democratic donors and strategists are smart, they will back Harris; or U.S Senator Corey Booker (D-New Jersey), and ignore everybody else.
Additionally, Trump understands that he can pick up thousands of African-American votes if Democrats nominate a white candidate. The number of black votes Trump will get is small but it could be enough to swing the election.
Why Trump Wants Democrats to nominate Liz Warren
Therefore, Trump wants Democrats to nominate a white candidate. Logically, he wants them to nominate the weakest white candidate.
I think the weakest candidate is Elizabeth Warren which is why Trump is Tweeting about her. Moreover, Warren is a great deal like Hillary Clinton.
For example, Warren is a wonky, nerdy, elitist intellectual (like Hillary) who is a poor public speaker. Moreover, Warren likes to self-sabotage with bizarre behavior; like taking a DNA test to prove farcical claims of Native American ancestry.
The DNA stupidity damages Warren severely because it proves she is white. That puts here at a disadvantage in a Democratic Party that is 57% nonwhite, according to Pew Research.
Finally, Trump knows how to get under Warren’s skin. The Donald knows he can manipulate Warren. For example, he was the one who tricked to her into taking the silly DNA test.
Harris, conversely, is famous for her tough icy demeanor and thick skin. However, only history will tell if those attributes make Harris “Trump proof.”
Trump is Afraid so he is trying to Suppress African-American Votes
I think Trump is trying to suppress African-American votes by promoting Warren. I guess the Donald thinks he can make Warren into a Democratic folk hero by attacking her.
Moreover, Warren is the type of candidate that energizes Republican voters. In detail, Warren is very left-wing, elitist, intellectual, and Northeastern. For instance, Warren is a former Harvard Law Professor who represents Massachusetts.
To be fair, Warren is a stronger candidate than some people think. Notably, Warren is likeable and she will have a strong appeal to white middle-class soccer moms. That will not help Warren in the general election, but it could help her in Democratic primaries.
For instance, Warren will be a strong contender in white majority states with small African-American populations. On the other hand, Warren’s background will be a liability in rural areas.
Will Kamala Harris Beat Trump?
Conversely, Harris is very popular with women voters, ABC News claims. For example, excited fans turned out to see Harris on a recent visit to Iowa.
Thus, Trump is a very shrewd strategist who understands both his own weaknesses and his opponents’ flaws. Therefore, the real challenge for Democrats is to find somebody who can outwit Trump.
Only history will tell us if Kamala Harris is that person. One thing is clear here, Trump understands modern America well and a lot of Democrats do not.